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SGH Macro Advisors produces concise, forward-looking proprietary reports on the major central banks and on key economic and policy developments that drive global bond, equity, and currency markets.
Founded in 2012, SGH has over the years built a reputation as a thought leader and source of well-informed, cutting-edge information, analysis, and insight on policy and financial markets. Its briefings and reports are highly valued by many of the world’s most well-known and influential hedge funds, money managers, and policymakers.
Highlights
SGH reports are highly valued for keeping clients and policymakers informed and well-ahead of market consensus.
December 17, 2025
SGH Insight
The BOJ Board will already have the CPI outcome in hand during its Wednesday-Thursday deliberations, even though markets will not see the number until after the decision.
Nationwide headline CPI is forecast to be around 2.9-3.0% year‑on‑year in November, with both core CPI excluding fresh food and “core‑core,” CPI excluding fresh food and energy around 3% year‑on‑year.
Those outcomes would confirm inflation staying well above target and reinforce the case for a hike while giving Ueda scope to lean on “gradual normalization” language.
Markets, looking for clues on cadence and the pace Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government might tolerate without protest, are likely to be disappointed by the vagueness of Ueda’s guidance at this meeting.
His objective will be to get through the press conference without providing any sense of timing for the next move, and allowing the Bank to break for the turn of the year.
Market Validation
Nationwide headline CPI is forecast to be around 2.9-3.0% year‑on‑year in November, with both core CPI excluding fresh food and “core‑core,” CPI excluding fresh food and energy around 3% year‑on‑year.
Those outcomes would confirm inflation staying well above target and reinforce the case for a hike while giving Ueda scope to lean on “gradual normalization” language.
Markets, looking for clues on cadence and the pace Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government might tolerate without protest, are likely to be disappointed by the vagueness of Ueda’s guidance at this meeting.
His objective will be to get through the press conference without providing any sense of timing for the next move, and allowing the Bank to break for the turn of the year.
Bloomberg 12/19/25
The yen weakened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan offered no clear guidance on the timing of future monetary tightening, analysts said. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 as expected.
The yen weakened against the dollar after the Bank of Japan offered no clear guidance on the timing of future monetary tightening, analysts said. The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to its highest level since 1995 as expected.
December 2, 2025
SGH Insight
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda lit up the December policy meeting with his speech in Nagoya Monday, making clear that the Bank will actively consider a rate hike at its December 18-19 gathering if the baseline outlook for economic activity and prices holds.
After speculation that political pressure from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration might push a move into January, Ueda’s remarks have put December firmly back in play.
Market Validation
After speculation that political pressure from Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration might push a move into January, Ueda’s remarks have put December firmly back in play.
Dow Jones TOKYO 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a level not seen in three decades, tightening policy settings again after an almost yearlong pause.
The central bank on Friday raised its overnight call rate target to 0.75% from 0.5%, reflecting policymakers' growing confidence that wage growth and inflation are moving in sync. The hike, the BOJ's first since January, puts borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.
The Bank of Japan lifted interest rates to a level not seen in three decades, tightening policy settings again after an almost yearlong pause.
The central bank on Friday raised its overnight call rate target to 0.75% from 0.5%, reflecting policymakers' growing confidence that wage growth and inflation are moving in sync. The hike, the BOJ's first since January, puts borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995.
October 31, 2025
SGH Insight
Bottom line: The BOJ is inching toward a December rate hike, but Ueda is buying time, waiting for clearer wage momentum, fiscal signals from Takaichi’s mini budget, and political space to move without resistance. December 18–19 is live, but not locked.
Market Validation
AFP 12/19/25
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday and indicated more were in the pipeline as it said the economy had shown signs of improvement.
The unanimous vote to lift the main borrowing rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent came hours after official data showed the country's core inflation rate held steady in November but was still well above policymakers' two percent target.
The Bank of Japan hiked interest rates to a 30-year high on Friday and indicated more were in the pipeline as it said the economy had shown signs of improvement.
The unanimous vote to lift the main borrowing rate to 0.75 percent from 0.5 percent came hours after official data showed the country's core inflation rate held steady in November but was still well above policymakers' two percent target.
December 2, 2025
SGH Insight
Bottom Line: Inflation and growth data confirm the analysis underpinning the ECB’s policy outlook. Disinflation hinges on energy and food prices, while services inflation is stronger than expected. Low unemployment and moderate wage growth are likely to sustain demand, keeping inflation on target while growth accelerates from low levels. Against this background, the ECB will keep interest rates at 2% for the foreseeable future.
Market Validation
FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row as the economy in the 20 countries that use the euro increasingly looks strong enough to get by without the stimulus of lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The bank’s rate-setting council left the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2%, where it has been since a rate cut in June. Economists now think the rate could stay right there for months - and possibly into 2027.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged Thursday for the fourth meeting in a row as the economy in the 20 countries that use the euro increasingly looks strong enough to get by without the stimulus of lower borrowing costs for businesses and consumers.
The bank’s rate-setting council left the benchmark deposit rate unchanged at 2%, where it has been since a rate cut in June. Economists now think the rate could stay right there for months - and possibly into 2027.
October 31, 2025
SGH Insight
Bottom Line: Hard data this week showed stronger economic growth than expected, and sticky domestic inflationary pressures. The EU-US trade deal, the ceasefire in the Middle East and progress in the US-China trade negotiations have all lowered uncertainty. In this environment, most ECB officials will continue to see the policy rate of 2% as the adequate level in the coming months.
Market Validation
Bloomberg 12/18/25
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks.
The deposit rate was kept at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Policymakers continued to offer no guidance on future steps, stressing that they’ll act one meeting at a time based on incoming data.
Fresh forecasts accompanied the decision, envisaging firmer economic expansion and inflation returning to 2% in 2028 after falling short of that level during the next two years.
The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged for a fourth straight meeting as inflation hovers around target and the euro zone weathers global shocks.
The deposit rate was kept at 2% on Thursday — as predicted by all analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Policymakers continued to offer no guidance on future steps, stressing that they’ll act one meeting at a time based on incoming data.
Fresh forecasts accompanied the decision, envisaging firmer economic expansion and inflation returning to 2% in 2028 after falling short of that level during the next two years.
December 17, 2025
SGH Insight
Bottom line: November’s inflation print and weakening growth seal the case for a BOE rate cut Thursday. December will likely mark the start of an easing path with further rate reductions over the coming year – though the Bank may frame tomorrow’s move as cautious rather than dovish.
Market Validation
Bloomberg 12/18/25
Although the Bank of England cut rates, the vote pattern and the tone of its statement give it a hawkish slant.
The BOE cut rates by just a 5-4 margin, indicating that some of the hawks on the committee are still not convinced that inflationary pressures are waning sufficiently.
The BOE’s guidance is also more cautious, with the central bank saying that the extent of further easing will depend on the evolution of the inflation outlook and that “judgements around further easing will become a closer call.”
Although the Bank of England cut rates, the vote pattern and the tone of its statement give it a hawkish slant.
The BOE cut rates by just a 5-4 margin, indicating that some of the hawks on the committee are still not convinced that inflationary pressures are waning sufficiently.
The BOE’s guidance is also more cautious, with the central bank saying that the extent of further easing will depend on the evolution of the inflation outlook and that “judgements around further easing will become a closer call.”
November 26, 2025
SGH Insight
The UK Budget has not only cleared the way for a rate cut in December but also set the stage for a broader resumption of easing by the Bank of England (BOE) next year.
Market Validation
The Guardian 12/18/25
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point for the fourth time this year, delivering a pre-Christmas boost to the struggling UK economy.
After leaving borrowing costs on hold in a split vote last month before the budget, the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) said on Thursday it would reduce the base rate from 4% to 3.75%.
The latest rate cut – the sixth since Labour came to power last year – will be welcomed by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Reeves announced a series of inflation-fighting measures at her November budget that were partly aimed at increasing the Bank’s room to manoeuvre to cut rates.
The Bank of England has cut interest rates by a quarter point for the fourth time this year, delivering a pre-Christmas boost to the struggling UK economy.
After leaving borrowing costs on hold in a split vote last month before the budget, the Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee (MPC) said on Thursday it would reduce the base rate from 4% to 3.75%.
The latest rate cut – the sixth since Labour came to power last year – will be welcomed by the chancellor, Rachel Reeves.
Reeves announced a series of inflation-fighting measures at her November budget that were partly aimed at increasing the Bank’s room to manoeuvre to cut rates.
November 4, 2025
SGH Insight
We’ve maintained since the BOE’s August 7 rate cut to 4% that policy remains 100 basis points above neutral, and that Bailey would continue easing after Chancellor Rachel Reeves releases her budget. We expect the Bank to ease again – possibly as soon as December – provided the disinflation trend persists and fiscal policy supports it.
Market Validation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/25
The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday, moving in step with the Federal Reserve rather than many peers in Europe, which have entered a period of steadier borrowing costs.
The U.K.'s central bank reduced its key rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November.
The BOE indicated that borrowin
The Bank of England cut its key interest rate Thursday, moving in step with the Federal Reserve rather than many peers in Europe, which have entered a period of steadier borrowing costs.
The U.K.'s central bank reduced its key rate to a near three-year low of 3.75% from 4%, resuming a series of cuts that stretch back to August 2024 after a pause in November.
The BOE indicated that borrowin
November 21, 2025
SGH Insight
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) will keep rates at 0% on December 11, signaling confidence that its current stance will keep inflation within its 0-2% target range over the medium term despite softer-than-expected prints in September and October.
Unless persistent negative inflation threatens the SNB’s mandate, Swiss officials will resist a return to negative rates to avoid a burden on lenders and savers.
Instead, to offset the drag of a stronger franc on imported inflation, the SNB would first turn to foreign exchange interventions — its preferred tool to manage the exchange rate.
Market Validation
Unless persistent negative inflation threatens the SNB’s mandate, Swiss officials will resist a return to negative rates to avoid a burden on lenders and savers.
Instead, to offset the drag of a stronger franc on imported inflation, the SNB would first turn to foreign exchange interventions — its preferred tool to manage the exchange rate.
Bloomberg Economics 12/11/25
The Swiss National Bank confirmed it is looking through recent weakness in inflation by holding its interest rate steady at 0%, despite a downgrade of its inflation forecasts. This sets the stage for further decisions to hold over coming meetings, as the price outlook is expected to gradually improve.
During the press conference, SNB President Martin Schlegel reiterated the central bank’s tolerance for inflation remaining at the bottom of its targeted range (0%-2%). This confirms the high bar for a negative interest rates policy. The focus over the coming months shifts to communication, notably around the potential for targeted FX interventions, through the publication of the minutes of this meeting later in January.
The Swiss National Bank confirmed it is looking through recent weakness in inflation by holding its interest rate steady at 0%, despite a downgrade of its inflation forecasts. This sets the stage for further decisions to hold over coming meetings, as the price outlook is expected to gradually improve.
During the press conference, SNB President Martin Schlegel reiterated the central bank’s tolerance for inflation remaining at the bottom of its targeted range (0%-2%). This confirms the high bar for a negative interest rates policy. The focus over the coming months shifts to communication, notably around the potential for targeted FX interventions, through the publication of the minutes of this meeting later in January.
December 7, 2025
SGH Insight
We expect the FOMC statement will revive the “extent and timing” language used in the past to signal a shift to data dependency, with the implication that the Fed anticipates it will not cut rates in January.
We anticipate relatively unchanged median projections in the December SEP. There isn’t much new data since the September FOMC meeting to suggest substantial forecast changes. We expect, however, that FOMC participants will need to mark their rate projections to market, which means that the distribution of 2026 rate projections will narrow as the dots at the top move downward.
The Fed is set to draw this divisive series of rate cuts to a close with the caveat that a worsening employment situation would revive calls for further cuts. There is an opportunity to heal the Fed’s internal divisions with hawks acquiescing to another rate cut while the doves support a FOMC statement and press conference that indicate the policy rate will likely hold steady in January and possibly beyond. In other words, the Fed again turns data dependent after this week.
Market Validation
We anticipate relatively unchanged median projections in the December SEP. There isn’t much new data since the September FOMC meeting to suggest substantial forecast changes. We expect, however, that FOMC participants will need to mark their rate projections to market, which means that the distribution of 2026 rate projections will narrow as the dots at the top move downward.
The Fed is set to draw this divisive series of rate cuts to a close with the caveat that a worsening employment situation would revive calls for further cuts. There is an opportunity to heal the Fed’s internal divisions with hawks acquiescing to another rate cut while the doves support a FOMC statement and press conference that indicate the policy rate will likely hold steady in January and possibly beyond. In other words, the Fed again turns data dependent after this week.
Wall Street Journal 12/10/25
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry.
The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn't warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.
The decision to reduce the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point -- to between 3.5% and 3.75%, a three-year low -- is aimed at protecting against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
With progress on inflation stalled, officials had indicated in the run-up to this week's decision that further reductions could require evidence of labor-market deterioration.
On Wednesday, their painstakingly calibrated post-meeting statement signaled a higher bar to additional cuts -- echoing a similar pivot to the sidelines after cutting rates one year ago -- by saying that the "extent and timing" of those moves would depend on changes in the economic outlook.
Bloomberg 12/10/25
Median assessment of appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year and over the longer run:
2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.625%
2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
Longer Run: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.000%
"Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions"
WASHINGTON (AP) - 12/10/25
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.
In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.
New York Times 12/10/25
The central bank’s decision to lower interest rates for a third straight meeting was highly contentious, reflecting an internal divide that will likely limit how much borrowing costs will fall next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in what was a highly contentious decision, suggesting officials may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs much further unless the labor market weakens sharply.
The decision to cut for a third meeting in a row shifted interest rates to a new range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not backed by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, underscoring how fractured the central bank has become as it grapples with the risk of both rising unemployment and sticky inflation.
Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting but signaled little appetite for more amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry.
The Fed voted 9-3 for the reduction on Wednesday, the first time in six years that three officials cast dissents. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid thought the reduction wasn't warranted, while Fed governor Stephen Miran favored a larger, half-point cut.
The decision to reduce the benchmark federal-funds rate by a quarter point -- to between 3.5% and 3.75%, a three-year low -- is aimed at protecting against a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in hiring.
With progress on inflation stalled, officials had indicated in the run-up to this week's decision that further reductions could require evidence of labor-market deterioration.
On Wednesday, their painstakingly calibrated post-meeting statement signaled a higher bar to additional cuts -- echoing a similar pivot to the sidelines after cutting rates one year ago -- by saying that the "extent and timing" of those moves would depend on changes in the economic outlook.
Bloomberg 12/10/25
Median assessment of appropriate federal funds rate at the end of each calendar year and over the longer run:
2025: 3.625% (range 3.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.625%
2026: 3.375% (range 2.125% to 3.875%); prior 3.375%
2027: 3.125% (range 2.375% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
2028: 3.125% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.125%
Longer Run: 3.000% (range 2.625% to 3.875%); prior 3.000%
"Federal Reserve cuts key rate but signals higher bar for future reductions"
WASHINGTON (AP) - 12/10/25
The Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate for the third time in a row Wednesday but signaled that it may leave rates unchanged in the coming months, a move that could attract ire from President Donald Trump, who has demanded steep reductions to borrowing costs.
In a statement released after a two-day meeting, the Fed’s rate-setting committee signaled that it may keep its rate unchanged in the coming months. And in a set of quarterly economic projections, Fed officials signaled they expect to lower rates just once next year.
New York Times 12/10/25
The central bank’s decision to lower interest rates for a third straight meeting was highly contentious, reflecting an internal divide that will likely limit how much borrowing costs will fall next year.
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday in what was a highly contentious decision, suggesting officials may be reluctant to lower borrowing costs much further unless the labor market weakens sharply.
The decision to cut for a third meeting in a row shifted interest rates to a new range of 3.5 percent to 3.75 percent. It marked the fourth straight vote that was not backed by all members of the 12-person Federal Open Market Committee, underscoring how fractured the central bank has become as it grapples with the risk of both rising unemployment and sticky inflation.
December 4, 2025
SGH Insight
The Bank of Canada (BOC) is content to sit tight through the turn of the year, viewing its 2.25% policy rate as on the stimulative side of neutral and “about the right level” to balance inflation and growth.
At its October meeting, the Governing Council (GC) emphasized that monetary policy was close to the limits of what it could do, reinforcing its expectation it would stay on the sidelines.
We too expect October’s 25 basis‑point cut in rates to be the last of the year and for the BOC to pause “to assess the impact of its actions”
Market Validation
At its October meeting, the Governing Council (GC) emphasized that monetary policy was close to the limits of what it could do, reinforcing its expectation it would stay on the sidelines.
We too expect October’s 25 basis‑point cut in rates to be the last of the year and for the BOC to pause “to assess the impact of its actions”
Dow Jones, Ottawa 12/10/25
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said officials were sticking with their outlook for moderate growth even though recent economic data point to signs of upward momentum.
The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, adding that policymakers believe it sits at an appropriate level to keep total inflation close to 2% while offering some stimulus for an economy squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The decision likely marks the start of a prolonged pause in Canadian rate policy, following aggressive steps over a roughly 16-month period to roll back interest-rate hikes meant to contain historically-high inflation.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday and said officials were sticking with their outlook for moderate growth even though recent economic data point to signs of upward momentum.
The central bank left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%, adding that policymakers believe it sits at an appropriate level to keep total inflation close to 2% while offering some stimulus for an economy squeezed by U.S. tariffs.
The decision likely marks the start of a prolonged pause in Canadian rate policy, following aggressive steps over a roughly 16-month period to roll back interest-rate hikes meant to contain historically-high inflation.
December 4, 2025
SGH Insight
Bottom Line: The RBA has likely shifted to a hawkish pause as inflation failed to return to target in 2025. Strong demand, wage growth, and housing pressures have stalled disinflation, leaving the cash rate at 3.6% and policymakers signaling vigilance. The Bank now expects inflation to slow only gradually, reaching about 2.6% by late 2026, and could be forced to reverse some of its easing if upside risks intensify.
Market Validation
Bloomberg 12/9/25
Australia’s central bank Governor Michele
Bullock called an end to a truncated easing cycle as
policymakers gauge whether a pickup in inflation requires an
extended interest-rate pause or a switch to tightening.
Bond yields spiked to a 13-month high after the governor on
Tuesday said that price risks have “tilted to the upside”
following the Reserve Bank board’s widely-expected decision to
hold the cash rate at 3.6%.
“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon
for the foreseeable future,” Bullock told reporters. “The
question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the
possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on
those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be
looking closely at coming into the new year.”
Australia’s central bank Governor Michele
Bullock called an end to a truncated easing cycle as
policymakers gauge whether a pickup in inflation requires an
extended interest-rate pause or a switch to tightening.
Bond yields spiked to a 13-month high after the governor on
Tuesday said that price risks have “tilted to the upside”
following the Reserve Bank board’s widely-expected decision to
hold the cash rate at 3.6%.
“I don’t think there are interest rate cuts on the horizon
for the foreseeable future,” Bullock told reporters. “The
question is, is it just an extended hold from here or is it the
possibility of a rate rise. I couldn’t put a probability on
those but I think they’re the two things that the board will be
looking closely at coming into the new year.”
News and Events
SGH Macro Advisors hosts occasional roundtables and events for clients and senior policymakers.